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Finance & Business Financial model

Churn Impact Simulator

Project customer count and MRR under churn and acquisition assumptions.

Finance & Business

Churn Impact Simulator projects customer count and recurring revenue from starting customers, ARPU, monthly churn, new customer acquisition, and projection length. Churn is the share of customers who leave in a period; logo churn counts customers, while revenue churn measures lost recurring revenue. ARPU is average revenue per user or account, and acquisition adds new customers to replace or exceed losses. Churn compounds over time, so small monthly differences can produce large changes in customer base and MRR after several months. This simulator is useful for retention planning, growth forecasting, and board-level scenarios, but real subscription models may also need expansion revenue, downgrades, seasonal acquisition, cohort behavior, and gross margin.

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Input guidance

Enter amounts, rates, terms, and timing assumptions, run the baseline case, then compare the result with fees, taxes, provider terms, and a downside scenario.

How to use this tool

  1. Enter the monetary values, rates, terms, and timing assumptions.
  2. Run a baseline case and review the key output numbers.
  3. Compare at least one conservative scenario before making a financial decision.

Churn Model Inputs

Simulate customer and MRR outcomes from churn and new acquisition.

Projection Results

Customer change: 24

Final MRR: $62,880.00

Total churned customers: 216

Total new customers: 240

Annualized churn: 34.79%

Net revenue change: 4.80%

Month Churned Net Change Customers MRR
1 18 2 502 $60,240.00
2 18 2 504 $60,480.00
3 18 2 506 $60,720.00
4 18 2 508 $60,960.00
5 18 2 510 $61,200.00
6 18 2 512 $61,440.00
7 18 2 514 $61,680.00
8 18 2 516 $61,920.00
9 18 2 518 $62,160.00
10 18 2 520 $62,400.00
11 18 2 522 $62,640.00
12 18 2 524 $62,880.00

Formula or method

How to interpret the result

Review note and limitations

Related tools and workflows

Related business tools help compare adjacent cost, revenue, margin, cash-flow, or planning assumptions before a decision is made. Start with Break-Even Calculator, Profit Margin Calculator, and Cash Runway Calculator when you need a quick follow-up check.